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02/24/2008 - Hallandale Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Eclipse Award winner War Pass and Cool Coal Man, both trained by Nick Zito, registered victories Sunday at Gulfstream Park.
War Pass, the 2007 champion two-year-old male, defeated four rivals in an allowance race in his 2008 debut. Cool Coal Man captured the $350,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes which leads to the March 29 Florida Derby.
Both colts are owned by Robert LaPenta with War Pass perfect in five career starts and Cool Coal Man winning both races this year.
War Pass set the pace in the one-mile race. Jockey Cornelio Velasquez never had to use his whip on the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ. War Pass drew off to win by 7 1/2 lengths over Web Gem. Chadwell finished third with Jet Run fading to last. Ultimate Authority was scratched from the race.
War Pass covered the mile in 1:36.38 on a fast track.
Sent off at odds of 1-20, War Pass returned the minimum $2.10 and $2.10. Web Gem paid $2.20. There was no show wagering.
Cool Coal Man, ridden by Kent Desormeaux, settled into fourth behind pacesetter Golden Spikes, Make the Point and Elysium Fields. Around the turn for home Cool Coal Man made a bold move on the outside hooking up with Elysium Fields on the lead.
Coming off the turn, Cool Coal Man began to edge away from Elysium Fields in the 1 1/8 mile race. Late down the stretch jockey Eibar Coa was able to rally Elysium Fields to draw within a half-length at the finish.
"I was concerned about the '9 horse' [Elysium Fields]," said Desormeaux. "It's hard to sustain that kind of speed for a long time, but when we were galloping out after the wire he moved out again once he felt the other horse come up to him. My horse was very handy and attentive to my needs. I think we went faster than what the clock said. But time is irrelevant, we won."
Court Vision finished third followed by Z Humor, Golden Spikes, Halo Najib, Kentucky Bear, Anak Nakal, Adriano, Ready Set, Make the Point and 7-2 favorite Monba. The highly regarded Anak Nakal is also trained by Zito.
The time for the 62nd Fountain of Youth Stakes was 1:51.85.
Cool Coal Man paid $16.60, $8.40 and $6.00. Elysium Fields returned $8.00 and $4.40, and the favorite Court Vision paid $3.40 to show.
"I had confidence going in with the post that Kent would get a good position with him," Zito said about Cool Coal Man. "He's run two great races here. With the slow pace, my other horse (Anak Nakal) really had no chance. He needs pace up front. I can't say where or what race he'll (Cool Coal Man) will run in, possibly the Florida Derby. He's not a big horse. He'd need to have a good 30 days from now. We'll see."
War Pass picked up $36,000 with Sunday's allowance win and has now earned more than $1.4 million.
Cool Coal Man has four wins in seven career starts. The Fountain of Youth victory was worth $210,000 to bring his bankroll to better than $300,000. In his first stakes race last year Cool Coal Man was seventh to Anak Nakal in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes.
<< Sharks top Penguins in shootout
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jonathan Cheechoo scored his 18th goal of
the season and Jeremy Roenick posted the deciding tally in a shootout as the
San Jose Sharks took down the Pittsburgh Penguins, 2-1, at Mellon Arena.
After Pit
<< Bohannon leads Badgers over Buckeyes
Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jason Bohannon scored 16 points to lead the
11th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers past the Ohio State Buckeyes, 58-53, at Value
City Arena.
Michael Flowers chipped in 14 points for the Badgers (23-4, 13-2 Big Te
<< Chargers ink LB Smith
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The San Diego Chargers signed veteran
linebacker Derek Smith to a two-year contract Sunday.
The 33-year-old Smith was released on Tuesday by the San Francisco 49ers,
where he spent the previous seven
<< Gay coasts to win at Mayakoba Golf Classic
Playa del Carmen, Mexico (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After going 292 career starts
without a win, Brian Gay needed just a one-under 69 Sunday to pick up tour
victory No. 1 at the Mayakoba Golf Classic.
Gay completed the tournament at 16-und
Roddick wins at San Jose >>
San Jose, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andy Roddick defeated Radek Stepanek to win
the championship match and take the crown at the $436,000 SAP Open on Sunday
The top-seeded Roddick had 13 aces to help him best Stepanek, from the Czech
Republ
Vikings' McKinnie arrested >>
Miami, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Minnesota Vikings left tackle Bryant McKinnie
was arrested early Sunday after a fight outside a Miami nightclub, according
to the Miami Herald.
The newspaper reported that McKinnie, 28, was involved in a la
Celtics come back to top Blazers, snap three-game skid >>
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Paul Pierce scored 30 points as Boston rallied
from an early 16-point deficit to beat Portland, 112-102, and snap a season-
long three-game losing streak.
Pierce added seven rebounds and five assists for the
Raptors crush Knicks >>
Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Andrea Bargnani had 25 points, seven rebounds
and five assists as the Toronto Raptors dominated the New York Knicks, 115-92,
at Air Canada Centre.
Chris Bosh donated 17 points and five boards and Anthony Park
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Chicago, IL - New Chicago Bears quarterback Jay Cutler and star linebacker Brian Urlacher shot down reports of a rift, saying they're simply not true.
"There's nothing between us," Cutler said Thursday, when he reported to training camp. "I just want to put that to rest. There never has been anything between us."
Urlacher added: "I never said what I was quoted as saying and that's it. I have a lot of respect for Jay. I think Jay knows that."
Former Bears receiver Bobby Wade caused a stir when he told Minneapolis radio station KFAN-AM that Urlacher used a profanity while questioning Cutler's manhood during a conversation in Las Vegas last weekend. Wade, who now plays for the Vikings, said Urlacher used a profane version of the word "wimp" during the interview that had to be edited out.
go radio station WSCR-AM also reported that Urlacher had to be restrained from confronting Cutler during organized team activities.
"I wouldn't go face-to-face with Brian, anyway," Cutler said. "No, that's never happened. I've hung out with Brian away from the facility numerous times and we've always gotten along."
Urlacher, noting he was limited by a groin injury, denied the reports in an interview with the Chicago Tribune and did it again when he reported to camp.
"I didn't practice this summer, so I don't know how I would fight the guy if I didn't practice," Urlacher said. "We have no problems. I'm excited about football starting. I'm excited to have him as our quarterback."
Why would Wade say that?
"I don't know," Urlacher said. "Maybe he's jealous because we have a good quarterback now."
Cutler said the first he heard of any friction was when he got a call from Urlacher to clear the air. Urlacher, however, said he had already taken several calls from teammates wondering if the reports were true when Cutler phoned.
"He called me and I said, What's up (expletive), what are you doing?'" a grinning Urlacher said, uttering the same word he allegedly used with Wade. "It's so dumb to me that this even got to this point, but it did and then here we are."
better place after going 9-7 and missing the playoffs for the second straight year. They have a franchise quarterback for the first time in decades after acquiring Cutler in an offseason trade with Denver. But there are questions about his attitude following a fallout with Broncos management and new coach Josh McDaniels.
His critics include former Bears coach Mike Ditka and former Indianapolis and Tampa Bay coach Tony Dungy, one of Smith's mentors. Smith, however, said Cutler has been a model teammate so far while denying any animosity with Urlacher.
"There's no issue with Jay and Brian, except Brian and Jay are both excited about being teammates for our club this year," coach Lovie Smith said. "No more than that. We can't spend a whole lot of time on something that isn't true. I have talked to the players. Whenever something comes out, you have to address it, but it's a non-issue."
In some ways, Cutler is getting a second chance in Chicago, an opportunity to repair his reputation.
Smith said another quarterback - Michael Vick - deserves one, although he doesn't see it happening with the Bears, who lack an experienced backup. The former Atlanta Falcons star, who served a 23-month sentence for running a dogfighting ring, said Thursday he is getting close to signing with a pro football team.
"A second chance, like everyone in society who has paid their debt to society," Smith said. "He deserves a second chance. As far as we're concerned, we like this team that we have right now."
Particularly the new quarterback.
"Me and Brian have been on a good relationship since I've been here, and I expect it to continue that way," Cutler said.
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