Phillies build big lead, top Marlins to keep hold of first place

Baseball Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Ryan Howard finished 3-for-5 with a three- run homer and tied a season-high with six RBI as Philadelphia built a double- digit lead but held on to top Florida, 10-6, in the finale of a four-game set.

Chase Utley added two hits, two runs scored and drove in two for the Phillies, who took three of four in the series and maintained a half-game edge in the NL East over Atlanta. The Braves routed Pittsburgh, 9-3.

Jimmy Rollins collected two hits and scored a run before leaving in the fourth inning with a tight right hamstring. He is listed as day-to-day.

Cole Hamels (10-10) turned in seven scoreless frames, scattering four hits while fanning five and walking one. The left-hander's consecutive scoreless innings streak was extended to 25 innings over his last four starts, dating back to August 24 against Houston.

Gaby Sanchez hit a three-run blast and Cameron Maybin contributed a two-run double for the Marlins, who have lost four of six.

Andrew Miller (1-1) was tagged in defeat for 11 hits and seven runs over just four innings, boosting his earned-run average to 6.16.

Howard contributed an RBI single in the seventh to get the Phils into double digits with a seemingly safe 10-0 advantage, before Florida hit the scoreboard in the eighth with six runs.

Nate Robertson gave up a single to Emilio Bonifacio and a walk to Logan Morrison before a three-run homer from Sanchez. Maybin later added a two-run double which halved the Marlins' deficit, then a pinch-hit two-out RBI double from Scott Cousins off David Herndon made it 10-6. Mike Rivera grounded out to end the rally.

Herndon walked Morrison with one out in the ninth, bringing on Ryan Madson, who prevented further damage by retiring Sanchez on a pop out and fanning Dan Uggla.

The Phils picked up two runs in the first. Shane Victorino doubled, Utley walked with one out and stole second, then Howard's single that bounced away from Marlins right-fielder Mike Stanton plated both and got Howard to second. Rollins singled with two down but Howard was thrown out at the plate.

In the second, Raul Ibanez stroked a leadoff double, Carlos Ruiz walked, and the bases were loaded when Wes Helms threw away Hamels' attempted sacrifice bunt. Victorino then plated a run with a groundout.

Rollins doubled with two down in the third and after a walk to Ibanez, scored on a Ruiz base hit for a 4-0 Phillies lead.

In the fourth, Placido Polanco and Utley singled with one out ahead of Howard's three-run blast, then Utley added a two-run single in the fifth which put the home team ahead 9-0.

Game Notes

Howard last drove in six during a 12-2 win over Pittsburgh on May 17...The contest ended a stretch of 24 games in 23 days since the Phils' last off day on August 17, during which the three-time NL East champs went 15-9...Florida shortstop Hanley Ramirez did not play due to a sore back...Robertson was torched for four hits and six runs with two walks and two strikeouts in two-thirds of an inning.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

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MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

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In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

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