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01/06/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Horsemen with horses stabled in the Northeast can begin thinking intently about where to run their three-year-olds leading to the Triple Crown races. This Saturday the first event at Aqueduct for Kentucky Derby hopefuls takes place with the running of the $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes.
"I think a $150,000 race puts you on the map, and this is a race that can be a stepping stone," said Art Magnuson, assistant to trainer Kiaran McLaughlin, whose Alpha is the 4-5 morning-line favorite in the mile and 70 yard Count Fleet. "We do think about the future with Alpha, and hope he's a Derby-type horse."
A son of 2006 champion three-year-old colt Bernardini, Alpha is owned by Godolphin Racing and has drawn post five in the seven-horse field. The colt has earned $90,000 in three starts, highlighted by a second-place finish behind Union Rags in the Champagne. In the Breeders' Cup Juvenile in November the colt disappointed by finishing 11th to Hansen with favorite Union Rags finishing a head behind in second.
"We sent him to New York last Wednesday, and he worked very well this morning," said McLaughlin on Monday about Alpha who will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez. "We have several three-year-olds we think highly of, including Alpha and Consortium and some others who haven't started yet, and we're trying to split them up. We have had great success in New York with our runners during the winter. At the Breeders' Cup, he lost it in the gate, and we're hoping he will step up off that effort. He's a nice horse."
The 4-1 second choice is Chuck Russo's Il Villano who has Jose Flores riding from the inside post. Trained by Susan Crowell, the gray colt is the winner of three straight including the Lord Henribee Stakes at Aqueduct on November 6 and Southampton Stakes at Parx Racing on December 6. The three-year-old has banked $125,300, the most of the seven starters.
The only other stakes winner in the Count Fleet is Shkspeare Shaliya who won the Pilgrim on the turf at Belmont Park on October 2. The colt will break from the outside post with Jose Valdivia Jr. in the saddle.
"I have been wanting to try this horse on dirt," said trainer Doodnauth Shivmangal about the 10-1 shot. "I'm an Aqueduct person and I am a New Yorker; on top of that, he has a good turn of foot, and has Clever Trick in his breeding, which is why I chose this spot. The distance is a little short for him, but my whole dream is to give him a shot and see what he can do on dirt."
Shkspeare Shaliya last started in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished ninth at 9-1 in the 14-horse field. With two wins in four starts the colt has earned $96,700 and is the 122 pound highweight.
From the rail out here is the complete field for the Count Fleet: Il Villano, Jose Flores, 4-1; How Do I Win, Cornelio Velasquez, 12-1; Whistleblower, Ariel Smith, 20-1; Stephanoatsee, Junior Alvarado, 6-1; Alpha, Ramon Dominguez, 4-5; Speightscity, David Cohen, 8-1 and Shkspeare Shaliyah, Jose Valdivia Jr., 10-1.
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The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
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